A party typically holds majority through multiple election cycles, but this election isn’t typical: some pundits have forecast a partisan shift in Congress. Which factors are we watching?
First, open seats. The number of open House seats is high, with 46 Republican-held seats considered competitive or worse (but Senate Republicans are safer).
Second, voter enthusiasm. Democrats’ enthusiasm has almost doubled since the 2014 midterms, but Republican galvanization is catching up.
Third, approval ratings. Trump’s approval rating sits at 44%, and 36% among independents. Historically, low ratings hurt the president’s party.
We’ll find out soon which factors will matter most.