President Trump’s low approval rating, conventional wisdom and historic patterns suggest 2018 should be big for Democrats; however, a deeper look at recent polling shows nothing’s guaranteed – for either party.
Those who “strongly disapprove” of Trump’s job performance outnumber those who “strongly approve” 2-1. But, 72% of those who “strongly approved” plan to vote in 2018 while a smaller percentage (61%) of those who “strongly disapproved” said they planned to vote. While Republicans should worry about bleeding support from independents and an enthusiasm gap with Democrats, Democrats can’t count on intense dislike for Trump to automatically translate into turnout.
— Amy Walter, National Editor, The Cook Political Report