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Midterm elections are about turnout. Democratic enthusiasm has been high all year, translating into a generic ballot advantage suggestive of a blue wave. The Kavanaugh hearings ignited GOP enthusiasm and narrowed the Democratic advantage some.
Since Trump’s election, the electorate has been engaged in a gender and education tug of war – a battle highlighted by the Kavanaugh hearings. College-educated white women are most enthusiastic and breaking 2:1 for Democrats. Non-college-educated white men are overwhelmingly for Trump.
White college-educated men and non-college-educated women are the ones to watch – what will they do this year?
– Christine Matthews, President, Bellwether Research & Consulting