President Trump’s low approval rating, conventional wisdom and historic patterns suggest 2018 should be big for Democrats; however, a deeper look at recent polling shows nothing’s guaranteed – for either party.
Polling
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It may be unprecedented that a president has his approval rating scrutinized so closely. But Donald Trump is no ordinary president, and Gallup’s daily tracking poll indicates how much the American public approves of the man in the Oval Office.
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Presidential elections and earthquakes have a lot in common. To predict elections, I worked with Vladimir Keilis-Borok, the world’s leading earthquake forecaster, to recast presidential elections in geophysical terms.
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The polls before the 2016 election didn’t screen accurately for likely voters. This is an intractable problem given that any correction based on this year’s errors may not apply to a future election. Even worse are misleading probabilities of victory for candidates created by the compilers of polls.
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Polls are not predictions; they are snapshots that are misused as predictions by pundits and poll compilers in the media. My system, the Keys to the White House follows historical patterns of victory and defeat for parties holding the White House.