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A change election

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Polling in 50+ battleground districts found that Democrats have largely erased the turnout deficit of the Obama years, with the possibility of higher turnout than Republicans – including many relatively white, suburban districts – and taking the House.

Republicans have a single-digit lead among 2014 voters, while Democrats have a double-digit lead among those who didn’t vote that year. The largest-ever gender gap means turnout among women and voters of color is key.

This is a change election and a referendum on Trump, who is held in low regard by most voters except for Republicans and older, white men.

– Celinda Lake, President, Lake Research Partners

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