Elections

The 2018 midterm elections are just one week away. They have been the talk of the town for months, and neither party is in a position to let their guard down.

Polling in 50+ battleground districts found that Democrats have largely erased the turnout deficit of the Obama years, with the possibility of higher turnout than Republicans – including many relatively white, suburban districts – and taking the House.

Starting with the 1992 presidential election, political alignments shifted enough to create a “blue wall” due to increasing Democratic voting strength in affluent suburbs in larger metropolitan areas in the Pacific Northwest, the Northeast, New England and Chicago/Detroit in the Midwest.

Markets have been up for the 12-month period following every correction in midterm election years since 1950. That’s because markets like certainty, independent of party.

When asked, most Americans will say they vote for the most qualified person, and many hope our elected officials can move our nation forward through bipartisan compromise. After polling Americans in nearly 60 competitive congressional districts, we find rates of partisanship that surpass even our new word – tribalism.

Resonate’s voter insights platform analyzes swing voters across the most relevant political persuasion insights. Here’s a look at what’s driving the midterm swing voter:

The 2018 midterm elections may very well change the balance of power in Congress, but the slow decline in American confidence toward the political, media and the business establishment will continue.

The lead-up to the midterms makes it clear women are powerful, but they aren’t protected economically or socially. That lack of protection shows up in political representation, especially among black women.

The biggest problem with polling in 2016 was not flawed methodology or the naively confident aggregation of polling into probabilities of outcomes. The issue was that everyone was so centered on the horse race.

GOP enthusiasm about the Congressional elections rose after Brett Kavanaugh’s confirmation, especially among Republican men. But Democratic enthusiasm had been high beforehand and has remained so. And for the first time in two years, Republicans feel as good as Democrats about their party and its Congressional leaders.

Despite the likelihood that Democrats pick up a substantial number of midterm House seats, they will be hard-pressed to recapture the Senate.

A party typically holds majority through multiple election cycles, but this election isn’t typical: some pundits have forecast a partisan shift in Congress. Which factors are we watching?

Midterm elections are about turnout. Democratic enthusiasm has been high all year, translating into a generic ballot advantage suggestive of a blue wave. The Kavanaugh hearings ignited GOP enthusiasm and narrowed the Democratic advantage some.

Fast facts! Here are the numbers to know heading into midterms 2018: