Despite the likelihood that Democrats pick up a substantial number of midterm House seats, they will be hard-pressed to recapture the Senate.
For one, they are tasked with doing something without much precedent: winning 80% of the total Senate seats contested. That’s what they need to net two seats and win the majority. In Senate popular election history, one party has won 80% or more of total contested seats just twice: 1932 and 1964, Democratic presidential wave years.
Since almost every most vulnerable Democrat is on the ballot this year, one can see the structural challenge for Senate Democrats.